R&D Portfolio Evaluation

1995 - 1997


Two RTM articles:
Determining a Project’s Probability of Success,” John Davis, Alan R. Fusfeld, Eric F.V. Scriven, and Gary L. Tritle, May-June 2001
"Resolving Uncertainty in R&D Portfolios,” Gary L. Tritle, Eric F. V. Scriven and Alan R. Fusfeld, November-December 2000

Objective: Develop techniques for choosing the optimum portfolio of R&D projects

A subcommittee was formed to consider algorithms for choosing an optimum portfolio of R&D projects under different business circumstances. In cooperation with McMaster University, a series of interviews was conducted in several member companies to develop a new portfolio-management process, described in two RTM articles.  Further work in cooperation with the Product Management and Development Association (PDMA) resulted in a set of "anchored scales" for measuring technical and commercial risk in R&D portfolios. The anchored scales were introduced in a Special Interest Session at the 1997 IRI Fall Meeting and issued to the IRI membership in 1998.  A workshop was held during the 1999 IRI Annual Meeting to discuss selected "anchored scales" for gauging critical aspects of technical and commercial uncertainty that are particularly relevant to discovery research.